Military analysis: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east

Kyiv’s forces have in two weeks seized more land in Russia than Moscow has in Ukraine all year – transforming perceptions about their capabilities and boosting morale among Ukrainians.
But that stunning operational success has yet to deliver one crucial objective: diverting Russia’s manpower and easing pressure in the hottest battlefields in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow is steadily advancing.
Russian soldiers are still grinding their way through Ukrainian defences, capturing villages and towns and bringing Moscow closer to its stated goal of complete control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
On Monday, Russian troops appeared to have captured nearly all of the town of Niu-York, entered nearby Toretsk and were encroaching on the logistical hub of Pokrovsk.
One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine said part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.
His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons – the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress – because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukraine has also moved upwards of 10,000 troops, including many of its elite airborne forces and mechanised brigades, from Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, where the fiercest battles are under way, according to officials involved with the operation.
At least 20 Ukrainian units are confirmed to be involved in the Kursk incursion, according to military analysts. Some of those were meant to be reserve forces to help shore up fracturing defensive lines and provide a reprieve for troops who have fought without rest for months or even years.
Even in the days before setting off for Kursk, Ukrainian defences in Donetsk region were “showing cracks”, said one senior Ukrainian official familiar with military operations.
He said Russian forces had achieved “tactical success” in Donetsk and more advances were likely unless the situation turned around.
With much of its reserves directed to Kursk, Ukraine will struggle to fill defensive gaps and counter various Russian threats, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war.
“Russia doesn’t have trouble mobilising troops whereas Ukraine still has trouble mobilising the number needed to hold and conduct operations in Donetsk,” he said.
Officers and infantry troops on the eastern front also now face even longer frontline stints without rotations, several said.
Two lieutenants serving in a brigade that had been on the front in Donetsk region before being sent to Kursk said that in more than two years of fighting they had each only had a month-long break.
Another soldier said he had gone months fighting near Toretsk without any rest before being ordered to Kursk. “Nobody can ask [for a rotational break] now,” he said. “We were the reserves but now we are here.”
While Kyiv does not comment on casualties, the incursion has already come at a material cost: Ukraine lost at least 51 pieces of valuable military equipment, including German Marder vehicles, US-made Stryker vehicles and Himars rockets, compared with 27 such losses on the Russian side, according to the open-source intelligence researcher Naalsio.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his top general, Oleksandr Syrsky, have given reassurances that the eastern front is just as important as the Kursk incursion.
Zelenskiy said last week that Donetsk was where “most of the Russian attacks occur – and the maximum of our defensive attention is concentrated there”. Syrsky said the situation in the east “remains difficult, but under control”.
US officials said this week without providing details that they had seen signs of Russia moving forces from the south and east of Ukraine north to Kursk.
But those appeared to be moved from the southern axis and occupied Crimea – locations that were not likely to have an impact on the situation in Donetsk. The Lithuanian defence ministry said some troops had also been moved from Russia’s Kaliningrad region.
Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts tracking the war said there had been no clear indication that Russia was moving a consequential amount of forces from the hottest area on the frontline in its east.
“Despite the successes of the defenders in the Kursk region, the Russians have not yet transferred their troops en masse from here,” said Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised Brigade. “Its main strike force remains.”
Russia’s forces appeared to have occupied all but a small district of Niu-York on Monday, according to Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry. The Russians had also crept closer to Pokrovsk.
Home to more than 60,000 residents, Pokrovsk is a significant logistical hub for Ukraine’s military and a linchpin for its defence of the rest of Donetsk region.
Over the weekend, Serhiy Dobriak, head of Pokrovsk city military administration, urged residents – particularly families with children and elderly people – to evacuate immediately.
Compulsory evacuation of families with children from Pokrovsk will start on Tuesday, according to regional authorities.
Maksym Zabelya, editor of the last remaining local newspaper in neighbouring Myrnohrad, said residents in his city had also started evacuating.
“People are leaving, taking their belongings. Many are even taking furniture,” said Zabelya. Rental car businesses “are now the most sought-after” in the city where the population has nearly halved from 40,000 before the war.
A Russian bomb destroyed the city’s tallest apartment building and a supermarket on Saturday, sending many more fleeing.
“We had no choice,” said Viktor, a retired miner. Myrnohrad, he added, whose name translates as “city of peace”, was being “wiped away”. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024